The Trump administration has confirmed a planned dialogue between Presidents Trump & Putin on Tuesday, March 18th 2025.
With Europe disarmed, and a shrewd isolationist in charge of the U.S, substantial territory concessions are very likely on the table. While politically disastrous for Zelensky of Ukraine, his position can be framed as “helpless” — caught between the negotiations of superpowers.
A close to the war would free up $200B+ earmarked for the effort, drop energy prices across the European continent, and lead a rearmament of NATO States. While few voices in Europe echo Trump’s call to spend 5% of GDP on defense, the war has pushed leaders to introduce defense bills/budgets exceeding the NATO 2% minimum pledge.
The increased defense spending in Europe is likely to outweigh losses from US defense spending, painting an overall bullish picture for US defense firms.
Sources & Excerpts
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Trump Says He’ll Speak With Putin Tuesday on Ukraine Truce Push
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"President Donald Trump said he’ll speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as the US presses for an end to fighting in Ukraine and European nations rush to bolster their support for Kyiv.
“We are doing pretty well I think with Russia,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday. “We’ll see if we have something to announce maybe by Tuesday,” he said, adding that there is “a very good chance” for a deal.
“A lot of land is a lot different than it was before the war, as you know,” he told reporters. “We’ll be talking about land, we’ll be talking about power plants — that’s, you know, that’s a big question.”
“We’re already talking about that, dividing up certain assets,” he added." -
Europe splits on Trump’s call to dramatically boost defense spending
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"“Europe is in for a tiny fraction of the money that we’re in [for],” Trump said during an appearance at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida late Tuesday. “We have a thing called the ocean in between us, right? Why are we in for billions and billions of dollars more money than Europe?”
A 5-percent target is more than any NATO member currently spends. The U.S. last year spent 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense; Poland comes closest, spending 4.12 percent in 2024, and aims to boost that to 4.7 percent this year.
Spending tends to be higher the closer a country is to Russia, and the three Baltic countries are dramatically increasing their military budgets."