With prisoner swaps planned & a partial 30 day ceasefire, relief may appear for energy & foodstuff prices in Europe if further peace talks reenable Ukraine’s ability to export goods to the West.
Continued sanctions on Russia also remain an open question under the Trump administration’s leadership. While lifting sanctions on Russian energy products would lift European economies broadly, European politicians are wary of Russia’s ability & desire to influence decisions across the continent, once entrenched in key industries.
Sources & Excerpts
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Putin Agrees to Pause Attacks on Ukraine Energy Infrastructure in Call With Trump
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"The cease-fire is the first tangible concession from Russia won by Trump in his campaign for a peace deal, in which he has mainly pressured Kyiv for concessions. For the Kremlin, Trump has dangled the enticement of improved relations and an end to its international isolation.
“We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine,” Trump posted Tuesday to social media. “We will, hopefully, for the sake of Humanity, get the job done!”
The Kremlin said in a statement that Trump presented a proposal for Ukraine and Russia to cease strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. “Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding command,” the statement said." -
Trump will make — or break — Europe’s Russia sanctions
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"For years, parallel U.S. sanctions and access to American energy have buoyed EU efforts to strangle Moscow’s fossil fuel cash flow. U.S. pressure helped check sanctions evasion. American penalties stranded tankers illicitly selling Russian oil. And U.S. gas provided Europe with a reliable alternative after Russia switched off the taps in a bid to weaponize energy flows.
In January, Hungary threatened to veto the regular renewal of the EU’s Russia penalties, citing Trump’s return to the White House. But Trump then unexpectedly threatened to thump Moscow with more restrictions. And U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, urging him not to derail the bloc's sanctions framework, according to two senior officials granted anonymity by POLITICO to speak freely. "